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Proof in the field

Real experiments. Real reallocation. Real lift.

Sweet Karam Coffee logo
Sweet Karam Coffee
FMCG · South Indian snacks, sweets and filter coffee

Meta didn't just drive their D2C. It lifted their Quick Commerce too.

When demand shifted nearly 50% from owned D2C to quick commerce, the question was not which channel was selling, but which was actually causing growth. A synthetic experiment across matched cities found the hidden halo.

+0%
Overall sales lift, next month
0.0x
Blended Meta ROAS
~0%
Budget moved to Meta
0%
New D2C driven by Meta
CMO and Founding Team, Sweet Karam Coffee

When you're growing 2-3x year-on-year and answering to investors, every rupee needs a reason.

CMO and Founding Team, Sweet Karam Coffee
Case study · Incrementality measurement
CHANNELD2CDirect-to-consumer store70% of new customersCHANNELQuick CommerceBlinkit · Zepto · SwiggyOrder volume liftsMETADEMAND SOURCE+18%OVERALL SALES LIFT
Fashion · Omnichannel retail
D2C · Offline Retail · Marketplace

New stores opened the doors. Media filled them.

A fast-growing fashion label scaled from D2C into hundreds of offline stores, and needed to know how much growth its media caused, not just where sales landed. Two independent models, orders and footfall, ranked every campaign by the footfall it drove.

0.0x
Best-vs-worst cost per visit
0%
Top footfall lift
0
Lowest cost per store visit
0
Independent models
How we measured it
1
Isolate
Media's true impact
2
Control
Strip store growth
3
Validate
Two models agree
4
Tune
Spend to footfall
Case study · Offline incrementality
3.6xCOST PER VISIT SPREADSTORE-FOOTFALL MODELMedia-driven lift by campaign, coloured by cost / visitProspecting Videos₹53130%Retargeting₹72824%Other prospecting₹1,15818%Plus Spends₹46114%MOST EFFICIENTLookalike₹49512%COST / VISITEfficient ₹461₹1,644 Least efficient

Highest lift isn't always cheapest: Plus Spends fills stores at the lowest cost of every campaign.

Natural wellness · Omnichannel health & nutrition
D2C · Marketplace · Q-Commerce · Offline

Performance had the credit. Brand built the demand.

A scaled wellness brand poured budget into brand media, YouTube, TV, Meta, OTT and Print, while last-click credited performance. A geo-isolated incrementality test measured what each channel actually caused, ranking them by real lift, not clicks.

0%
Peak lift, on Meta
0x
TV's offline lift vs online
0%
New-customer lift from OTT
0 Cr
Annual spend under test
How we measured it
1
Design
Geo-isolated test
2
Isolate
Model each channel
3
Benchmark
Rank by real lift
4
Deploy
Always-on plan
Case study · Brand incrementality
GEO-ISOLATED DESIGNOne channel per cell, isolated in time and geographyFLIGHT 1WEEKS 0–63-WK COOL-OFFFLIGHT 2WEEKS 9–15CLUSTER 1CLUSTER 23 STATESBASELINENO ADSwk 6–9YTMETAOTTPRINTTV · STRAIGHT THROUGHALWAYS-ON PERFORMANCE ADSCool-off: brand goes dark, orders watched to settleTime sweep across the 15-week test

Each channel runs alone, in its own geographies and weeks, with a 3-week cool-off so orders can settle back, isolating cause from coincidence.

Fashion · E-commerce marketplace
Meta brand upper-funnel · Organic traffic

Organic traffic got the credit. Brand ads created the demand.

A fashion e-commerce marketplace ran Meta brand upper-funnel ads in test cities and kept comparable cities dark. A geo-isolated Synthetic Control model rebuilt the organic traffic those cities would have seen with no ads, isolating the growth the campaign truly caused.

+0%
Incremental organic sessions
+0%
Incremental unique users
0
Guardrail checks
0
Independent lift KPIs
How we measured it
1
Design
Test on, control dark
2
Activate
Upper-funnel flight
3
Model
Synthetic control
4
Validate
MAPE, sig, placebo
Case study · Organic incrementality
+5%ORGANIC SESSIONS LIFTSYNTHETIC CONTROLOrganic sessions: actual vs the no-ads counterfactualCAMPAIGN WINDOWPRE-PERIOD+5%ActualSynthetic+3% unique users

Test-city organic traffic tracks its synthetic twin through the pre-period, then lifts clear of it across the campaign window. The shaded gap is the incremental organic lift, isolated from seasonality and baseline trend.

Natural wellness · Omnichannel health & nutrition
Linear TV · Digital brand video · D2C and marketplace

TV moved the percentage. Digital moved the money.

Three geo synthetic-control experiments, two TV flights and one digital brand flight, measured what each medium actually caused on the owned store and on marketplace. The biggest percentage lift was not the biggest return.

0.0x
Digital vs TV, return per rupee
0%
Highest single lift, TV in November
0.0L
Incremental revenue from digital
0%
Of TV's lift landed on marketplace
How we measured it
1
Design
Geo-matched flights
2
Isolate
One medium at a time
3
Measure
Synthetic control
4
Validate
Significance, placebo
Case study · TV vs digital brand lift
2.3xDIGITAL vs TV, PER RUPEEBY LIFT %BY INCREMENTAL SALESTHE ORDERSWAPS1TV · Nov flight19%2Digital · Aug-Sep14%3TV · Feb flight7.12%2TV · Nov flight₹3.55L11Digital · Aug-Sep₹10.90L13TV · Feb flight₹2.47LChips show how far each flight moved between the two rankings

TV's November flight posted the highest lift of any cell measured. Digital produced 3.4x more incremental revenue on the same causal method, and returned nearly twice as much per rupee inside the campaign window.

D2C hair and skin · Men's and women's lines
Connected TV · Owned web and app

You cannot click a CTV ad. You can still measure one.

Click attribution cannot see a living-room screen. So CTV ran in two states and nowhere else, a synthetic twin rebuilt what those states would have sold with no CTV, and a mix model set the result against every other channel.

0
Funnel stages measured end to end
0
Cuts of the order book read separately
0
Weeks, across two flights
0
Placebo iterations run
How we measured it
1
Design
Geo-isolated CTV
2
Build
The synthetic twin
3
Read
Lift at every stage
4
Validate
Placebo testing
Case study · CTV full-funnel incrementality
GEO-ISOLATED, TWO STATES ONNo clicks requiredSessionsApp installsApp sign-upsForm fillsOrdersTEN WEEKS, TWO FLIGHTSPHASE 1DARKPHASE 24 weeks on2 weeks4 weeks sustenance

One geo design, read at every stage from traffic to transaction, across a launch flight and a sustenance flight. Control regions passed back through the model returned an average lift of -0.13%, which is what confirms the test-region read.

Leading hair and skin care · D2C personal care
Meta and Google · Channel level, then product level

The ads manager said 2.07. The model said 5.40.

A leading hair and skin care brand planned its ₹30 crore a year across Meta and Google from the numbers each platform reported about itself. A mix model measured what each channel actually caused, then what each product's ads did to the others.

0.0x
Perf Max understated by attribution
0.00
Measured return per rupee, Perf Max
+0%
Blended ROAS, from 1.2 to 1.8
0.0 Cr
Incremental sales measured
How we measured it
1
Model
15 months, daily
2
Validate
R2 92%, MAPE 8.7%
3
Compare
Lift vs attributed
4
Decompose
Down to product
Case study · Marketing mix modelling
2.6xPERF MAX, UNDER-REPORTEDRETURN PER RUPEEvs REPORTED3.33 THE MODEL FOUNDGooglePerf Max5.402.07 reported×2.61Google Others2.462.11×1.17Meta Prospecting1.351.29×1.05Meta Remarketing1.111.83×0.61Only remarketing scores below 1: it delivered less than it claimedBar: measured by the modelTick: reported by the platform

Perf Max carried 8.23% of the budget and returned 2.6x what its own dashboard credited it with. Remarketing was the only channel where the platform's number was the flattering one, which is what a real measurement looks like.

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